The Bitcoin price has always been a lead story in the crypto space. As Google Trends show, the search query “Bitcoin price” reached its year peak so far at the end of June 2019. However, July has seen depreciation by 45%, which is probably caused by price correction.
“Bitcoin price” search statistics on Google Trends.
Nonetheless, the Bitcoin price remains a hot topic in both the crypto and non-crypto media, and is often discussed in connection to major developments such as Facebook’s Libra, crypto regulation reinforcement, and booming institutional investment.
The following article is a comparison of the technical analysis of some indicators that are believed to highlight trends in the price of Bitcoin and expert opinions on where Bitcoin is headed next. Let’s see if they agree on following Bitcoin price trends or not. Which will you trust more: technical indicators or the suggestions of crypto professionals? No information presented here should be considered financial advice.
The golden cross is a technical indicator of the Bitcoin price based on a moving average, or MA, which is the average of the price of Bitcoin over a certain time period. The golden cross occurs when a short-term moving average (for example, 50-MA, or a 50-day MA) crosses above a long-term moving average (200-MA) and indicates the beginning of a bullish market.
The golden cross on the three-day chart has proven to be a reliable, long-term bull market indicator in the past. The last time it occurred, in February 2016, it preceded the longest Bitcoin bull run of 2017 leading to the record high of $20k.
On July 30, 2019, a golden cross was reported on a three-day chart:
Golden crosses on the Bitcoin price charts in 2016 and 2019. Source: Tradingview.
Interestingly, the golden cross of 2016 occurred 6 months ahead of Bitcoin reward halving (the influence of Bitcoin halving on its price will be discussed in the following section). Now we are approximately 9 months ahead of the next Bitcoin halving scheduled for May 2020. The combination of these two factors might be a predictor of the next Bitcoin rally.
Like many other indicators, the golden cross has certain limitations. For example, the golden cross can not 100% accurately predict the price and is often referred to as “lagging”, i.e. following the price. Before trading, make sure that the golden cross is confirmed by other signals and indicators.
Created by Trace Mayer, a crypto entrepreneur, investor, and Bitcoin Knowledge Podcast host, the Mayer Multiple is a metric used to help identify speculative bubbles and moments of seller exhaustion.
The Mayer Multiple is a ratio of the current bitcoin price over a 200-day moving average, and is calculated as follows:
Mayer Multiple = Bitcoin market price / 200-day MA value
When the current Bitcoin price is above a 200-day MA, i.e. the Mayer Multiple is over 1, it is considered a positive price indicator. When the current price is below, i.e. the Mayer Multiple is below 1, it is considered a negative indicator, or a bearish market.
But not every Mayer Multiple value above 1 is a good sign for the Bitcoin price. When the indicator hits 2.4, Bitcoin is considered to be overvalued or overbought. Every time the Mayer Multiple has hit 2.4 (for example, during the bull runs of 2013 and 2017), it then returned to 1.5 and went lower.
Bitcoin price and Mayer Multiple charts.
On June 26, 2019, the Mayer Multiple went over 2.4 for the first time this year. Soon after, the Bitcoin price corrected significantly. A few days before that, Trace Mayer published a potential scenarios table on his Twitter, based on Mayer Multiple calculations and historical context:
Potential scenarios of Bitcoin price change. Source: Trace Mayer on Twitter
At press time, the Mayer Multiple is 1.56, which makes the Bitcoin price fairly valued according to Trace Mayer; 1 BTC is $9,946. The average Mayer Multiple since the creation of Bitcoin is 1.39. The Mayer Multiple has historically been higher than today's value 26.52% of the time.
Every 4 years the Bitcoin block reward cuts in half, which is called a “halving”. Previous halvings occurred in 2012 (from 50 bitcoins to 25) and in 2016 (from 25 to 12.5). The next one is scheduled for May 2020, and it will cut the Bitcoin block reward to 6.25.
Why is it so important and how does it influence the price? Halving lowers the supply of new bitcoins, and a lower supply usually leads to higher prices. At the moment, approximately 1,800 bitcoins are generated per day. After the halving, 6.25 bitcoins will be generated every 10 minutes, 37.5 per hour, 900 a day, which, at the current price, account for $9M a day and $270M a month.
The halvings of 2012 and 2016 preceded the Bitcoin bull runs of 2013 and 2017, as seen on the chart:
Bitcoin price and halvings chart. Source: Plethron
Many experts are looking forward to the 2020 halving. As Barry Silbert, the Digital Currency Group founder and CEO, reminded listeners during an Inside the ICE House podcast, “each time that [halving] has happened in the past, the price of bitcoin has gone up by 500-1,000 percent afterward”.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is used to identify Bitcoin price trends and changes from bullish to bearish market and vice versa.
The MACD indicator consists of three main components:
When the MACD crosses above the signal line, it makes a bullish cross, and when it crosses below, it makes a bearish cross. The bearish cross in January 2018 indicated the beginning of the bear market; the Bitcoin price dropped from $17k to $6k back then.
A couple of weeks ago, on July 16, 2019, the MACD turned bearish on the three-day chart for the first time since December 2018. The price drop from almost $11k to $9.5k during the following days marked the price trend change.
The MACD indicator goes bearish for the first time since December 2018. Source: Tradingview.
As are the vast majority of indicators, the MACD is not 100% accurate. It can produce false signals when it indicates a possible reversal which doesn’t actually happen, or misses real price reversals. As always, it’s better to use the MACD only in conjunction with other indicators and signals.
In this section, we will observe the latest Bitcoin price predictions from noted crypto experts which have been put in order from the most skeptical to most optimistic. Remember that despite all their experience and market insights, experts do not possess precise knowledge of where Bitcoin is going, and the following opinions and predictions should not be considered as trading advice.
Tone Vays – $7k in the near future
Tone Vays, a trader, consultant, and content creator, revealed that he was very skeptical of the recent Bitcoin rally, as there was something that didn’t feel right to him. In his interview with IG TV, Vays reiterated that previous Bitcoin bull runs were always followed by 60-80% price depreciation, and expected the following correction. He notes $7k as a possible correction price, but claims that he wouldn’t be surprised if Bitcoin goes lower and touches its 2019 low of $3,500.
Tone Vays talks about a possible Bitcoin price correction.
Michael Novogratz – $10-14k by the end of 2019
Michael Novogratz, the founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital, assumed that Bitcoin could probably reach $20,000 before the end of 2019, but more likely it would settle between $10k and $14k. During his interview with Bloomberg, Novogratz called Facebook’s Libra a game changer because thanks to it, global companies have started to believe that crypto could become a part of the future financial and crypto infrastructure. According to Novogratz, the push from institutional investors inspired by Libra among other things could help Bitcoin retest the all-time high of $20,000 by the end of the year or hopefully sooner.
Mike Novogratz discussing Libra and the Bitcoin price on Bloomberg.
Naeem Aslam – $60-100k in the following bull run
Naeem Aslam, ThinkMarkets chief market analyst and Forbes columnist, proposed that Bitcoin would easily cross the line of its all-time high and move further to reach $60k or even $100k.
Naeem Aslam makes his Bitcoin price prediction on Twitter.
In his interview with Fox Business, Aslam claimed that on its way to $100k, Bitcoin needs to first break two important hurdles – $20k and $50k. The main driving forces of crypto momentum are, according to him, major enterprises like Facebook, Samsung, Amazon, and Apple entering the crypto space, and the maturity of the tokenization of digital assets.
Anthony Pompliano – $100k by the end of 2021
Anthony Pompliano, the co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital Assets, agrees that Bitcoin will benefit from Libra being a “gateway drug” to other cryptocurrencies. Speaking on BloxLive.tv, he predicted that Bitcoin could hit $100,000 by the end of 2021. Pompliano says that Bitcoin will remain highly volatile, and there will be drops in price on the way to the top. He argues that the Bitcoin reward halving in May 2020 will become the main driving force for price appreciation.
Peter Brandt – $100k
Peter Brandt, a professional trader with 40 years of expertise, claimed in late June that Bitcoin was taking aim at $100,000.
Peter Brandt says that Bitcoin is aimed to hit $100k.
A parabolic move is an exponential rise of an asset and previous parabolic phases of Bitcoin saw the highs of $30 in 2011, $1,100 in 2013, and $20,000 in 2017.
Though later, at the beginning of July, Brandt assumed that the trend had changed. According to him, a further major correction could amount to a staggering 80% of the total market cap, albeit “most of the damage of decline will occur to altcoins.”
John McAfee – $1M by the end of 2020
John McAfee, a crypto enthusiast, and a possible US presidential candidate didn’t step back from his ambitious forecast of Bitcoin reaching $1M by the end of 2020. Instead, he confirmed that despite all the fluctuations and price falls in recent weeks, he was sure that his prediction would come true.
John McAfee claims that Bitcoin will reach $1M by the end of 2020.
For the time being, it’s probably the most famous Bitcoin price prediction in the world as too much is at stake: McAfee pledged to eat his private parts on national television if proved wrong. The anecdotic prognosis went viral, with jokes, memes and even a price prediction tracker.
A price prediction tracker comparing the Bitcoin real price dynamics with the one predicted by McAfee.
The Bitcoin price is extremely volatile, and, despite every effort to predict it, no one knows for sure where it is going next week, next month, or next year. Some of the indices and opinions in this article were quite optimistic, suggesting that the Bitcoin price could rise by hundreds of percents. Do not trust them too much, because, as Peter Brandt noted, “Bitcoin is a market like no other”. No expert and no indices can predict the movement of the Bitcoin price exactly and precisely. Modeling future prices could be exciting but using these assumptions in trading might be risky, so remember not to invest more than you are ready to lose.
Thanks for reading,
The COIN360 Editorial Team