Former Prime Minister of Great Britain Benjamin Disraeli once said: "there are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies and statistics." The power of numbers must not be underestimated, as the same data presented differently can have a completely different meaning.
Seasonality and days-of-the-week patterns used to be very prevalent across traditional financial markets, and to some extent, seasonality effects are still very much in play. However, the vast majority of these inefficiencies have, to a large extent, been eliminated due to the competitive nature of arbitrageurs, dealers and market makers. The crypto market is still in its infancy, and as such, there could be similar inefficiencies in the fast world of digital asset trading.
The bar chart below highlights the performance of Ethereum over the course of 2015. The data clearly shows that Monday was a good day to be short, as 81% of the time the price of Ethereum was lower at the day’s end. At the same time, Saturday is when you want to be long Ethereum, with winners outperforming losers by 57% vs 43%.
Scroll forward to 2018 and a few interesting patterns emerge. Firstly, the data is more homogenous; we don’t evidence as many huge outperformances and underperformances. However, Monday and Wednesday still marks a significant underperformance by Ethereum compared to the rest of the week. In fact, only 33% of all Wednesdays of 2018 saw Ethereum end the day with gains. In 2015, this figure was 38%. Saturday and Sunday were when you wanted to be long: the ratio was at 6:4 on Saturdays in favour of positive closes for the day. What is the reason for the persistent underperformance on Wednesday? One thing to note is that CBOE XBT Bitcoin Futures expire on this day…
Thank you for reading,The BeQuant Analytics team