CryptoQuant CEO Calls Bitcoin Bull Run Over as Analysts Disagree

Mixed Signals on Bitcoin’s Future Amid Market Corrections and Institutional Activity

Bitcoin’s latest market cycle is under scrutiny, with analysts debating whether the bull run has ended or if another rally is imminent. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju declared that Bitcoin’s bull cycle has concluded, predicting a period of bearish or sideways action for the next six to twelve months. 

Ju’s assessment, based on data from CryptoQuant, highlights negative spot ETF inflows for three consecutive weeks and massive trading volume around the $100,000 price level that failed to push Bitcoin higher. “Realized cap-based indicators show no new liquidity, and the data keeps signaling bearish,” Ju stated, acknowledging his change in view after consistently calling for a bull market over the past two years.  

His analysis is based on Profit and Loss (PnL) Index signals that align with historical patterns marking the end of previous bull markets. Ju’s stance has shifted since March 4, when he pointed to strong fundamentals such as rising mining activity as a sign of continued bullish momentum. 

Addressing skepticism, Ju responded to counterarguments, including claims that retail investors—potentially entering via ETFs rather than on-chain activity—might still drive a bull cycle. He estimated that about 80% of spot ETF flows are retail-driven, but this hasn’t translated into on-chain momentum. 

On macroeconomic factors, Ju noted that while rate cuts and reduced uncertainty could spur new liquidity, current conditions suggest Bitcoin’s price may remain range-bound rather than face a severe crash like the 70% drops seen in past bear markets.

However, other analysts dispute this outlook, citing macroeconomic factors like the global M2 money supply reaching record highs. Crypto analyst Seth argues this liquidity surge supports a fresh Bitcoin rally, while CoinRoutes CEO Dave Weisberger sees a potential price peak by late April if historical trends persist. 

In a recent post on X, Dave Weisberger further challenged Ju’s prediction, asserting that institutional buying remains strong despite ETF outflows. He argued that the outflows stem from the normalization of futures premiums rather than waning interest, and he pointed to increasing liquidity and anticipated regulatory changes as bullish signals. 

While Weisberger suggested Bitcoin could see a price peak, he cautioned that Federal Reserve actions, such as potential rate hikes or continued quantitative tightening, could temporarily disrupt this trajectory.

Weisberger went on to explain why Bitcoin futures price volatility has stabilized. He attributed this to increased arbitrage activity balancing prices and regulatory changes allowing institutional investors to use alternative hedging tools beyond CME futures. 

Former Phunware CEO Alan Knitowski suggested that based on past cycles, Bitcoin should be trading at least 67% higher, placing a lower bound for this cycle around $250,000. Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten remains cautiously optimistic, assigning a 50% probability of Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high before mid-2025.

Bitcoin’s recent 30% retracement from its record high of $109,590 on January 20 to a low of $77,041 between March 9 and 15 has amplified concerns about market direction. Bitfinex analysts classified this as the second-largest correction of the current bull cycle, largely driven by short-term holders selling at a loss. Institutional selling pressure further exacerbated the decline, with Bitcoin ETFs witnessing $920 million in outflows from March 9 to 15. 

Over a five-week span leading up to March 14, Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) recorded cumulative outflows of $5.4 billion. While historical data suggests that 30% drawdowns often indicate local bottoms before market recoveries, institutional demand has yet to show strong signs of resurgence.

Despite the recent decline, Bitcoin continues to outperform traditional asset classes, including equities, U.S. treasuries, real estate, and precious metals. Even with a 23% drop from its peak, Bitcoin has generated higher returns than major global investment options. Data from Bloomberg, shared by Apollo Sats co-founder Thomas Fahrer, underscores Bitcoin’s resilience, showing that its post-2020 election returns still outshine traditional financial markets. 

Nansen principal research analyst Aurelie Barthere dismissed fears of an extended bear phase, characterizing the correction as part of a broader bull market rather than a full-fledged trend reversal. Institutional interest remains evident, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs registering $274 million in net daily inflows on March 17, the highest single-day inflow since early February when Bitcoin was trading above $98,652.

As Bitcoin’s historical cycle patterns continue to unfold, long-term projections suggest a peak around September 2025 and a market bottom by May 2027. If previous halving cycles hold, Bitcoin’s next peak could arrive approximately 500 to 550 days after the April 2024 halving, with a subsequent bottom occurring within 780 to 990 days. Each cycle has historically extended by roughly 100 days, implying that the current cycle could be following a similar trajectory. 

While market volatility remains a key concern, industry leaders remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s future. Bitget CEO Gracy Chen maintains that Bitcoin is unlikely to drop below $70,000, considering the $73,000 to $78,000 range an attractive buying zone. Her outlook aligns with broader market expectations, with projections ranging from $160,000 to $200,000 before the end of 2025.

This article has been refined and enhanced by ChatGPT.