USDGalaxy Slashes Bitcoin Target to $120K as Bitwise Calls Current Phase Bitcoin’s “IPO Moment”
Analysts Split on Bitcoin’s 2025 Trajectory Amid Institutional Maturity and Market Rotation
TL;DR
- Galaxy Digital cut its 2025 Bitcoin target from $185,000 to $120,000, citing whale selling and capital shifts toward AI and gold.
- Bitwise’s CIO says Bitcoin is entering its “IPO moment,” urging institutions to rethink allocations from 1% to 5%.
- Both firms agree Bitcoin’s maturing phase is bringing slower growth, steadier volatility, and deeper institutional control of the coin market cap.
Galaxy Digital’s head of research, Alex Thorn, has sharply lowered the firm’s year-end Bitcoin price target to $120,000, down from a previous estimate of $185,000, signaling a more tempered outlook for 2025. Despite maintaining a broadly bullish long-term stance, Thorn said several near-term headwinds have forced Galaxy to recalibrate expectations.
He pointed to intensified whale selling, a post-October leverage unwind, and a redirection of capital into other asset classes as key factors behind the revision. “Large Bitcoin holders have been transferring coins into ETFs and institutional channels,” he said, describing it as structural selling rather than panic. The firm also cited declining enthusiasm from new institutional entrants and a funding rotation into AI and gold, both of which have outperformed Bitcoin this year on the broader crypto price index.
Galaxy’s updated forecast comes after a turbulent October that saw Bitcoin briefly dip below $100,000 following a major deleveraging event on October 10. The correction was amplified by weaker liquidity, slower ETF inflows, and a lack of new governmental or corporate reserve announcements — notably absent were the much-anticipated strategic Bitcoin reserve initiatives that many market participants expected in 2025. Thorn added that “Bitcoin’s growth phase is evolving into a maturity phase,” marked by reduced volatility, increased institutional participation, and diminishing short-term upside potential.
The report acknowledges a cooling speculative appetite even as institutional holdings in ETFs continue to rise, reflecting a more mature and less euphoric market tone. Galaxy’s earlier projections, published in December 2024, expected spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products to exceed $250 billion in AUM with more than $36 billion in net inflows, assumptions that now appear optimistic given shifting investor priorities.
While Galaxy turned cautious, Bitwise Asset Management’s Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan offered a more constructive take, calling the current cycle Bitcoin’s “IPO moment.” The analogy, borrowed from macro investor Jordi Visser, compares today’s Bitcoin environment to the post-IPO consolidation of large public companies such as Meta Platforms, when early insiders sold and institutions accumulated.
Hougan described this period as one of “redistribution, not decline,” noting that Bitcoin’s year-to-date gain of about 9% in 2025 trails the S&P 500’s 15% rise and gold’s 51% surge. He argued that the underperformance is typical of an asset transitioning into a mature, widely held investment. “The days of a 1% allocation to Bitcoin are over,” Hougan wrote in a client note, adding that institutional portfolios should start from a 5% allocation baseline as Bitcoin cements its position alongside gold and equities within global markets. “If history is any guide,” he added, “this is the phase where long-term investors should be accumulating, not exiting.”
Both analyses reflect a shared belief that Bitcoin’s role within the coin market cap has evolved from speculative frontier asset to institutional core holding. Galaxy sees this as a reason for slower growth — the natural outcome of maturity — while Bitwise interprets it as validation of Bitcoin’s long-term legitimacy. For traders, the contrast underscores a split between tactical caution and structural optimism. Bitcoin’s crypto price may be stabilizing below previous peaks, but its institutional gravity is growing stronger, reshaping how capital allocators think about risk and reward across the crypto ecosystem.
This article has been refined and enhanced by ChatGPT.
