Not an investment for the risk-adverse
Never has there been a more valid use of the warning you see and hear in financial advertising that 'prices may go up and down' than when looking at investment in Bitcoin. A recent article in Forbes is about Bitcoin price prediction in 2024, and asks the question, is it boom or bust? Then, in large bold letters, it advises readers that they should not invest unless they are prepared to lose all the money they invest. It goes on to remind people that Bitcoin is a high-risk investment and that there is no protection if something goes wrong.
You might expect such stark warnings to put people off, but investors have continued to flock to Bitcoin, and one analyst, Cathie Wood, who is CEO of Ark Invest, predicted it could reach an astonishing $1.48 million by 2030 (yes, that does say million). Another senior analyst, Nicholas Sciberras from Collective Shift, says that it is difficult to put a price on it. He claims the sky is the limit and is dependent on the level of adoption and external market factors.
Wide acceptance
However, experts are saying that Bitcoin is currently 'on fire' and there is a possibility that it will break $70,000 this month. It has certainly come a long way since its first recorded price in 2009 of less than a cent. In December 2023, one Bitcoin was worth $42,000, so what is driving the current price rally? While once niche, Bitcoin has become increasingly mainstream, and so many outlets now accept the currency. Online casinos have always been one of the most popular places to spend crypto. You can find a shortlist of the best that accept Bitcoin in Canada, demonstrating how far acceptance has come.
Following a bearish start to the summer, this cryptocurrency is now bouncing back in what is the start of a new rally. David Brickell, head of international distribution at FRNT Financial, and former forex trader Chris Mill informed readers in their latest "Connecting the Dots" newsletter that the case for Bitcoin value surging looked compelling. Whether it will break the $73,700 March record remains to be seen. Here are some of the key factors that are driving the rally.
US Presidential Candidates
Love him or loath him, Trump has positioned himself for this Presidential election as a pro-crypto candidate despite previously describing Bitcoin as a "scam against the dollar". It is thought that his election would boost the coin's price. The odds of him being elected received a significant boost after the assassination attempt, but then Biden's withdrawal from the race then turned the figures on their heads again. Harris entering the race brought a whole new dynamic.
While the Biden administration has blocked laws to help the industry and focused on enforcement, no one yet knows if crypto would face more of the same if Harris were elected. She hails from the USA's tech capital, California and many in crypto hope she will cultivate a close relationship with industry executives like she did with Meta's Sheryl Sandberg. Meanwhile, industry stakeholders are banking on a Trump presidency ousting Gary Gensler, who, as Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission, has been an outspoken critic of crypto. They believe Trump would introduce a more crypto-friendly boss to head the agency.
The View from Washington
People in Washing maintain that Trump is not the only one who has had a change in attitude to crypto, with the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise writing in an investor note.
"Crypto has faced outright hostility from Washington in recent years, hamstringing industry growth, but in one of the most stunning developments of the past few months, attitudes have changed sharply."
He argued that both Democrats and Republicans have been voting for laws perceived as pro-crypto, declared it was a game-changer, and added that there had never been a better long-term setup for crypto than currently. He suggested that the changed political landscape was one of the factors that could catapult Bitcoin to $100,000 by the end of 2025.
AI is hungry for miners
Another factor that will influence Bitcoin's price is AI. According to Bernstein analysts, AI will be a critical driver in Bitcoin's price reaching $200,000 by the close of 2025. In a research note, these analysts claimed that crypto mining companies would help to keep Bitcoin's price from falling as they would stop being so dependent on it. This is because AI-hungry tech giants need the miners to help them grow fast enough. Bitcoin mining firms are now reallocating their resources and releasing their processing power to the tech companies.
Brian Dixon, CEO of crypto hedge fund Off The Chain Capital, is reported as saying
"Most of these miners can redirect a substantial amount of their computers to basically service Google, Microsoft, Amazon, all these big companies. We're going to see some of these big tech companies do major partnerships with Bitcoin miners."
So rather than selling their Bitcoin holdings, they will tap a new revenue stream.
Federal Reserve
The US central bank is signaling that a fall in interest rates is on the horizon and confidence in the economy is, once again, on the up. Recent inflation data over the second quarter means the economy is back on target. This confidence has increased the chances of an interest rate cut in September. This is a bullish signal for riskier assets like cryptocurrencies and stocks.
Mt. Gox
Ten years after its collapse, the Mt. Gox crypto exchange started paying out Bitcoin to its creditors – a total of $8.2 billion. While the market expects most Mt. Gox users to dump their tokens, there could be a significant bounce back if the selling price is lower than anticipated, according to the decentralized crypto derivative Syn Futures. JP Morgan claimed that the effect would work its way through the market in July and is therefore expecting a rebound in Bitcoin value in August.
Up, down, round, and round, Bitcoin valuations are far from static!
