Cboe’s New Perpetual-Style Futures Launch and Deepening Short-Term Bitcoin Losses Reshape Market Sentiment

Institutional Futures Rollout Advances as Short-Term Holders Face 2022-Level Stress

TL;DR

• Cboe sets December 15, 2025 launch for perpetual-style Bitcoin and Ethereum futures with near-24/7 trading and daily cash-adjustment mechanics.
• Bitcoin’s short-term holder supply in loss spikes to levels last seen during the 2022 FTX collapse, intensifying pressure across the crypto price index landscape.
• Market signals highlight a widening split between institutional product expansion and retail-driven weakness as recent buyers sit overwhelmingly underwater.

A fast-expanding derivatives push by Cboe Global Markets is set to collide with growing strain among Bitcoin’s short-term holder base, marking a sharp divergence in how different segments of the market are absorbing shifting macro conditions. Cboe confirmed it will introduce “continuous” futures contracts for Bitcoin and Ethereum on December 15, 2025, pending regulatory approval, describing them as perpetual-style instruments designed to eliminate the rollover burden typical of standard monthly futures. The exchange plans to operate the products on a 23×5 schedule that closely mirrors offshore perpetual markets, with clearing handled through Cboe Clear U.S. to streamline counterparty risk. 

These contracts are structured with 10-year expiries but include daily cash-adjustment mechanisms that mimic perpetual funding behavior, tied to pricing benchmarks sourced from deep-liquidity real-time rate feeds. The framework positions the launch as a direct response to long-standing institutional demand for a regulated perpetual-like alternative, especially as derivatives now shape a large share of global coin market cap movements and help define the broader crypto price index on any given trading day.

Sentiment among less-experienced market participants is moving in the opposite direction as CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin’s short-term holder supply in loss has climbed to its highest level since the 2022 FTX collapse. The metric tracks BTC owned by investors who purchased recently and now sit underwater, signaling elevated capitulation risk. Social data accompanying the report highlighted a striking threshold: at roughly $96,000 per BTC, nearly 99% of Bitcoin bought within the previous 155 days is reflected at a loss. 

Analysts also noted that approximately 815,000 BTC have been sold over the past 30 days, a level described as the most intense bout of distribution since January 2024, underscoring the friction between long-term holder sell-side pressure and cooling demand. One observation linked to the trend warned that “long-term holders are selling hard,” adding that the contraction in spot demand is dragging the crypto price lower and weighing on the broader crypto price index during sessions in which liquidity thins out abruptly.

Market dynamics emerging from these developments point to a widening gulf between institutional traders preparing to engage with Cboe’s new instruments and retail traders contending with heavy unrealized losses. The futures rollout signals deeper institutionalization of crypto markets, offering regulated exposure to perpetual-style price action that historically lived only on offshore venues. Meanwhile, the short-term holder cohort reflects mounting vulnerability across the spot market, driven by steep drawdowns that leave recent entrants highly reactive. That dynamic creates conditions where institutional inflows and structured hedging products can influence stability while retail-driven selling amplifies volatility, pushing shifts across coin market cap rankings and reinforcing how quickly sentiment can break when nearly an entire slice of new buyers holds BTC below cost.

The convergence of these forces sets up a pivotal moment for the market. Institutional participants will soon gain access to tools designed to track underlying crypto price movements with fewer operational frictions, while short-term holders face pressure levels reminiscent of one of Bitcoin’s most severe historical drawdowns. The combination outlines a landscape where structural adoption advances even as retail segments absorb the downside, shaping a narrative that could dictate near-term trading behavior and broader market resilience.

This article has been refined and enhanced by ChatGPT.