Fed Division, Missing Jobs Data, and Bitcoin’s Slide Below $89K Put Markets on Edge

Labour-Market Blind Spots Complicate December Rate-Cut Expectations

TL;DR

• Fed minutes show a razor-thin divide over a December rate cut as liquidity-stress signals creep in.
• Cancellation of the October jobs report removes a critical datapoint ahead of the December meeting.
• Bitcoin slips below $89,000 as markets reassess the crypto price index and broader coin market cap reaction to fading rate-cut odds

The latest Federal Reserve minutes from the October 28–29 policy meeting delivered one of the clearest indications yet that officials remain split over the path of interest rates heading into December. Language in the minutes revealed that “many” participants judged a near-term cut as “likely not appropriate,” while “several” believed an easing move “could well be appropriate,” creating a narrow but meaningful divide that undercut earlier expectations of a smooth pivot. Traders quickly re-priced the odds of a December reduction, pushing the probability closer to roughly 40% from levels near 90% just weeks earlier, widening uncertainty across risk-asset markets and forcing investors to reconsider how the next phase of monetary policy could influence the crypto price index.

Market participants reacted to the wording with heightened sensitivity because the hierarchy in Fed language matters: “many” is interpreted as a stronger headcount than “several,” hinting that the committee leaned modestly against cutting rates even before new complications emerged. Analysts noted that officials are now wrestling with contradictory signals, ranging from sticky components of inflation to pockets of labour-market cooling, all while structural liquidity pressures begin to surface. The minutes referenced growing stress across key funding markets, including repo-market volatility and shrinking usage of the overnight reverse-repo facility, developments typically associated with reserves drifting toward scarcity and the late stages of quantitative tightening. Those dynamics contribute to a heavier macro backdrop that spilled directly into crypto, where Bitcoin briefly fell below the $89,000 mark, erasing months of gains and amplifying caution as traders scanned the broader coin market cap landscape for signs of stabilisation.

Compounding the uncertainty, the Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed that the U.S. will not publish an official unemployment rate for October after the 43-day government shutdown prevented the agency from conducting the household survey. The November employment report has been pushed to December 16, leaving the Fed without a complete labour-market snapshot heading into its December 9–10 meeting. Economic advisers have already warned that the absence of these metrics introduces a blind spot at a critical moment. Former White House economist Kevin Hassett described the situation plainly, noting that “we’re going to get half the employment report. We’ll get the jobs part, but we won’t get the unemployment rate.” The gap forces policymakers to rely on fragmented indicators just as private-sector data points toward softening fundamentals, including continuing unemployment claims rising from roughly 1.916 million to 1.957 million between mid-September and mid-October.

Several labour-market indicators released by private organisations deepen the picture. Announced job cuts for October reached about 153,074—the highest October reading in more than two decades—driven mostly by layoffs in technology, logistics, and warehousing sectors. Analysts monitoring wage dynamics highlighted an unusually wide gap between higher- and lower-income earners, reportedly the largest in ten years, raising concerns about structural pressures that could accelerate if economic momentum weakens. These datapoints have fed into the bond market’s shift toward safety and raised questions about whether any potential rate cut would be interpreted as stabilisation or as confirmation that the economy is cooling faster than expected. Investors tracking the crypto price index and coin market cap movements have increasingly priced in the latter possibility, creating additional headwinds for assets sensitive to tightening liquidity conditions.

Traders who had previously framed a December cut as bullish are recalibrating their outlook as the narrative transitions from “cut because inflation is under control” to “cut because growth and labour conditions are deteriorating.” The distinction matters for crypto markets because easing under weaker economic assumptions often brings sharper volatility rather than steady upside. Analysts observing Bitcoin’s slide below $89,000 noted that risk appetite has thinned as liquidity signals worsen and as the Fed faces one of the tightest policy calls since the inflation-fighting cycle began. A line within the minutes encapsulated the sentiment: “If the Fed chooses to hold in December, markets may need to brace for a longer-than-expected plateau and more volatility ahead.” Crypto-linked assets have mirrored that mood, with traders increasingly aware that the combination of labour-market fog, policy division, and funding-market stress removes the clarity that risk-on environments typically require.

The convergence of a divided policy committee, the cancellation of a major economic dataset, and early signs of liquidity strain has raised the stakes for December. Markets that once assumed a linear easing path now face a more ambiguous and potentially fragile setup. Whether the Fed cuts, holds, or signals caution, the reaction across the crypto price index and broader coin market cap suggests traders are preparing for wider swings, not calmer waters, as policymakers move toward one of their most consequential meetings of the year.

This article has been refined and enhanced by ChatGPT.