Kalshi Raises $300M at $5B Valuation, Expands Prediction Markets to 140 Countries

CFTC-Regulated Platform Surpasses Polymarket in Global Share, Targets $50B in Annualized Volume

TL;DR

• Kalshi secures $300 million funding at a $5 billion valuation, backed by Sequoia, a16z, and Paradigm.
• The CFTC-regulated prediction market expands to over 140 countries, surpassing Polymarket’s global share.
• Trading volume has grown 200x year-over-year, hitting $50 billion in annualized volume.

Kalshi, the New York-based prediction market operator, has raised $300 million in fresh capital at a $5 billion valuation as it opens access to users across 140 countries. The latest Series D round marks a sharp valuation jump from its $2 billion level in June, underscoring accelerating investor confidence in regulated event-based trading. Sequoia Capital and Andreessen Horowitz led the round, joined by Paradigm, CapitalG, Coinbase Ventures, and General Catalyst, making it one of the largest private raises in the history of prediction markets.

The company’s expansion marks a pivotal moment for the sector, extending beyond U.S. borders while maintaining its CFTC-regulated structure. Kalshi now claims over 60% of global prediction market share, surpassing its on-chain rival Polymarket. The platform’s trading volume has surged more than 200 times year-over-year, while its user base has expanded twentyfold. Recent figures show weekly volumes topping $1 billion in early October and total notional trading surpassing $10.5 billion to date, with roughly $3.2 billion of that generated in the past month alone. The firm expects to sustain $50 billion in annualized trading volume as international adoption accelerates.

Founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi positioned itself early as a compliance-first alternative to decentralized competitors. Its contracts—settled in U.S. dollars rather than tokens—are regulated by the CFTC, giving it legitimacy in traditional finance circles. The platform recently cleared a regulatory dispute over election-based markets and continues to defend its model against state-level lawsuits alleging that sports-related contracts resemble unlicensed gambling. Mansour addressed those concerns directly, saying, “Every time there’s a new type of financial innovation, there’s always a series of questions around regulation. If no questions are asked, then there is no meaningful innovation going on.”

Kalshi’s expansion strategy centers on integration with major retail brokerages, including Robinhood and Webull, to make event contracts as accessible as stocks. The company aims to embed prediction markets across mainstream trading platforms and major crypto apps within a year, according to internal leadership. The move follows growing institutional appetite for event-based derivatives that allow users to hedge or express opinions on political outcomes, inflation, or macroeconomic events.

The timing of Kalshi’s raise places pressure on Polymarket, which recently received a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange, valuing it near $9 billion. While Polymarket’s architecture remains blockchain-native, its U.S. operations have shifted toward a regulated model through its acquisition of QCX LLC, a CFTC-licensed exchange. The two platforms now embody a philosophical divide: Kalshi leans on regulatory clarity and fiat rails, while Polymarket blends decentralized liquidity with institutional infrastructure. Both are racing to define how real-world events become standardized financial assets.

Kalshi’s global rollout does not mean universal availability. The company’s member agreement lists 38 restricted jurisdictions—including Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Singapore, and Thailand—due to local regulatory constraints. Even so, the new markets dramatically expand its potential user base, creating what Mansour described as “one liquidity pool” spanning most of the developed and emerging world.

The latest funding also validates the long-term thesis that prediction markets are evolving from speculative novelties into regulated asset classes. Venture capital partners echoed that sentiment, with one Andreessen Horowitz executive noting, “Tarek and Luana chose the difficult but more responsible path of becoming the first CFTC-regulated prediction market. Their infrastructure is built for scale.” As Kalshi now outpaces Polymarket in both transaction volume and regulatory access, the next phase of competition will test whether centralized compliance or decentralized architecture defines the global future of event-based trading.

This article has been refined and enhanced by ChatGPT.