MiCA Deadline Forces Europe’s Crypto Licensing Shakeout

Licensing gap exposes uneven rollout

Germany led Europe’s MiCA authorization race, while several member states had not issued any licenses by late June. ESMA interim register data compiled on June 26, 2026, showed Germany with the largest number of approvals, followed by France and the Netherlands.

Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority said the country’s high number of MiCA authorizations was partly driven by its large financial sector, including many credit institutions able to provide crypto-asset services under MiCA. BaFin also pointed to Germany’s pre-existing national licensing regime, which allowed some crypto-asset service providers to use simplified authorization pathways during the transition.

BaFin said it is difficult to predict whether Germany will keep its dominant share of MiCA authorizations because future licensing outcomes will depend on market developments, innovation trends and the volume of pending applications across member states. BaFin also said approvals in other EU countries are expected to rise over time and broadly align with the size of national financial sectors.

Greece stands out because Binance applied for authorization there before withdrawing its application and shifting its licensing plan to another MiCA jurisdiction. Poland is another stress point because delays in MiCA implementation legislation and three reported presidential vetoes left the country without an active licensing framework by the EU deadline.

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Executives warn of cost pressure and consolidation

Erald Ghoos, CEO of OKX Europe, estimated that “80% of crypto players will not survive after MiCA.” Ghoos said the problem is not only MiCA itself but the “width and heaviness” of the wider European regulatory burden, especially for firms that want to provide stablecoin services.

Ghoos said firms that obtain a MiCA license but want to offer and process stablecoins may also need a Payment Institution license or an Electronic Money Institution license. Several firms asked whether OKX, which obtained a MiCA license from Malta more than a year earlier, would acquire them because they could not afford the cost of compliance.

Patrick Gruhn, founder and CEO of Perpetuals.com Ltd., said the locked capital required for a MiCA spot license is only part of the cost. He said the licensing process itself can become much more expensive, especially for larger exchanges.

Gruhn pushed back against the idea that all disappearing VASPs represent major operating businesses. He said the projected wipeout “overstates the situation significantly” because some affected entities are tiny shell companies, while some losses may reflect reallocation as licensed firms hire compliance staff and offshore firms do not.

Mateusz Kara, CEO of Morphic Financial Group, said the deadline could “wipe out Polish crypto.” Kara said Poland had more than 1,400 pre-MiCA registrations in one source and around 2,000 VASP entities by his estimate. Kara said, as far as he knew, Morphic was the only one with a MiCA license at that moment, and many Polish entities would need to shut down starting in the second half of 2026.

Kara said the business landscape for crypto entities in Poland will change dramatically. He said there will likely be little room left for small crypto companies, new entrants will find it difficult to start, and the European market is likely to be consolidated by bigger players.

Users face platform changes as licensed exchanges compete

Alex Fazel, chief partnership officer at SwissBorg, said the licensing gap could push more than 10 million European crypto users to search for a new platform. Fazel said the immediate impact would fall on users whose exchanges withdraw or restrict services, comparing the situation to a tenant being evicted with no notice.

Fazel warned users against chasing short-term promotional incentives when choosing a replacement platform. He said they should look at platform identity, culture, security, useful features and community fit, adding that “incentives fade” while trust in a platform has to last beyond a campaign.

Fazel also criticized the competition among exchanges trying to win displaced users. He said exchanges are entering a “rat race” of bigger bonuses and louder checks, while money does not create trust on its own.

Coinbase, OKX and Kraken are using the disruption as a user-acquisition window, targeting EU users from platforms that failed to secure MiCA authorization before the deadline. Binance said it would restrict services for EU-based users after withdrawing its MiCA application the previous week. Bybit Global said on Monday, June 29, that access to services for users in the European Economic Area would be “progressively limited” starting on July 1, while Bybit’s European arm remains authorized under MiCA through its Austrian licensee.

Licensed firms include Coinbase, FalconX, Kraken and OKX. The absence or delay of other major exchanges could reshape the European market by pushing users toward authorized exchanges, regulated custody providers or self-custody.

BitGo Europe offered another path for smaller firms by allowing them to move client wallets into BitGo’s regulated custody infrastructure. BitGo Europe is authorized by Germany’s BaFin.

BitGo CEO Mike Belshe said the impending purge of crypto firms in Europe, with only a 17% conversion rate to MiCA compliance, “feels like a setback.” Belshe said the situation is especially notable given rising institutional momentum in Europe and plans for a regulated euro stablecoin, and said European users may become the biggest victims of the transition period ending because there are fewer than 250 authorized service providers.

Regulators and lawyers expect uneven enforcement

John Salmon, a partner at Hogan Lovells, said uncertainty remains after the deadline because different EU countries have taken different approaches, and some have been slow to produce their own implementation legislation. Salmon said regulators may not be “overly harsh,” but added that no one knows for sure and that each country will probably take a different approach.

Jeffrey Greenbaum, a partner at Hogan Lovells and co-author of a MiCA transition report, pointed to a previous joint initiative by regulators from France, Italy and Austria calling for ESMA to take tighter control over how member states administer MiCA. Greenbaum said smaller financial hubs such as Luxembourg and Dublin want to retain market share, while other regulators were upset by developments involving Malta and Cyprus.

Greenbaum said observers can broadly identify which regulators may be lenient because they need to be and which may be more severe, depending on the jurisdiction and the firms involved. Lavan Thasarathakumar, senior adviser at Hogan Lovells, took a harder view and said there will probably be a hardline approach from the deadline because any regulator, jurisdiction or member state allowing firms to continue operating under existing national law would be in breach of EU regulations.

The European Banking Authority added a separate enforcement layer on Friday, June 26, 2026, by proposing a framework that would allow fines of up to 12.5% of annual turnover for major stablecoin issuers that breach MiCA rules. The EBA directly supervises significant stablecoin issuers under MiCA, and its consultation runs until September 28, 2026, after which the fine methodology is expected to be finalized.

The debate around MiCA now centers on whether the regulation is creating a safer, more disciplined crypto market or pricing out smaller companies. The clearest near-term effect is consolidation: firms with licenses can use regulatory approval as a competitive advantage, while companies that missed the deadline face higher costs, restricted access to users and possible withdrawal from Europe.