USDPrediction Markets Push Into Mainstream Media and Wallet Apps as Volumes Hit New Highs
Kalshi, Polymarket, BNB Chain Platforms, and Wallet Giants Accelerate a Sector Redefining How Information Is Priced
TL;DR
- Legacy media, major wallets, and sports brands are wiring prediction markets directly into their ecosystems as Kalshi and Polymarket secure high-profile partnerships.
- BNB Chain’s ecosystem is spawning multiple newcomers backed by YZi Labs, though questions around inflated volume and liquidity incentives persist.
- Sector-wide momentum continues as 2025 trading volumes climb sharply and researchers outline structural flaws and emerging “attention assets” built on prediction-driven data.
Kalshi’s rapid move into mainstream visibility came through two major media deals announced days apart, giving CNN and CNBC direct access to the platform’s real-time forecasting data. Bankless confirms the sequence began earlier in the week with CNN adopting Kalshi as its official prediction markets partner for newsroom analytics ahead of the U.S. election cycle. Coverage notes that news organizations are increasingly reliant on probabilistic inputs after prior high-profile forecasting failures, framing Kalshi’s data as a corrective layer for political analysis.
A subsequent multi-year integration with CNBC expands the footprint further, placing Kalshi’s predictions across the network’s TV programming, digital properties, and subscription services beginning in 2026. Shows such as Squawk Box and Fast Money will feature dedicated on-air probability tickers, and Kalshi will operate a CNBC-curated page within its platform. CEO Tarek Mansour calls this shift the “next evolution” of financial reporting, while CNBC president KC Sullivan characterizes prediction odds as an increasingly important decision-support tool. Momentum follows a $1 billion fundraise in November that lifted Kalshi’s valuation to $11 billion and made both 29-year-old co-founders billionaires, with Forbes highlighting CEO Luana Lopes Lara as the youngest self-made woman billionaire. Bankless places Kalshi’s growth within a broader 2025 surge that pushed combined Kalshi and Polymarket volumes above $45 billion for the year.
Polymarket’s expansion continues at a similar clip, backed by a flurry of corporate partnerships that reposition the platform far beyond its crypto-native roots. Reports show Polymarket’s valuation at roughly $10 billion as of October and confirms the platform secured CFTC approval to operate an intermediated U.S. trading venue, a regulatory milestone tied to its planned token launch. On-chain sentiment reflected strong expectations for expansion, with markets pricing a 99% probability that Polymarket’s U.S. rollout would be completed before the end of 2025.
Media outlets document the next strategic leap: MetaMask integrated Polymarket directly into its mobile app in December, following an October announcement and forming part of MetaMask’s broader push into swaps, perpetual futures, and loyalty-style rewards. Users can now place political, sports, crypto, and entertainment wagers using a single mobile interface while retaining full self-custody. The publication describes this upgrade as a shift toward a DeFi super-app environment and credits geopolitical tension and crypto volatility for Polymarket’s sustained volume growth.
BNB Chain is producing its own wave of prediction market experiments backed by YZi Labs, beginning with Opinion, a platform launched in October that posted unusually sharp early activity. Sources cite Dune data showing that Opinion captured nearly $1.5 billion in weekly trading within four weeks of going live—about 40% of a $3.7 billion weekly market and ahead of Kalshi’s $1.2 billion and Polymarket’s roughly $1 billion in the same period. Observers flagged the growth curve as unnaturally smooth; TEN Protocol co-founder Cais Manai argued the volume pattern resembled engineered activity, adding that inflated metrics were widespread across the industry. Opinion Labs, founded in 2023 by Forrest Liu, raised $5 million in March from YZi Labs, Echo, Animoca Ventures, Manifold Trading, and Amber Group.
The platform’s exclusive BNB Chain deployment coincides with broader expansions across the network, including consecutive months of record trading volumes and a $1 billion YZi Labs ecosystem fund allocated to DeFi, RWAs, AI, payments, and infrastructure. CryptoNews reports that BNB Chain’s prediction market activity hit $7.4 billion in October due to the Opinion launch and Polymarket integrations.
Follower launches across the chain compound the momentum. CZ publicly teased Predict.fun—built by an ex-Binance founder and incubated by YZi Labs—emphasizing that user funds generate yield while locked in active markets. The product is positioned as a capital-efficient alternative to traditional models where staked liquidity sits dormant. Early data shows only two available markets, covering Solana’s odds of reaching $600 by year-end and a potential judicial order forcing Google to divest Chrome, yet the platform has attracted roughly 12,000 users and about $300,000 in total volume. Comparative benchmarks sourced by CryptoNews and complementary outlets place Polymarket’s cumulative volume above $3 billion, Kalshi’s near $587 million, and newer competitor Limitless around $10.9 million, suggesting entrenched liquidity advantages favor incumbents.
BNB Chain’s broader environment continues to provide a foundation for experimentation, with FinanceFeeds citing $77.6 billion in DEX volume over the past 30 days. Trust Wallet—also connected to CZ—introduced its own Predictions hub on December 2, integrating Myriad at launch and preparing to add Polymarket and Kalshi. With a user base estimated at 220 million, Trust Wallet is positioning prediction markets alongside token swaps, staking, and other native features, with CEO Eowyn Chen describing this expansion as support for trading not just assets but information and expectations through a self-custodial interface.
HTX Research supplies the sector’s most detailed structural critique through a December 4 report highlighting rapid growth paired with persistent design weaknesses. The analysis estimates global prediction market volume reached $27.9 billion in the first 10 months of 2025, a 210% year-over-year increase, and contrasts this surge with the fragility seen in incentive-driven ecosystems. HTX compares prediction markets with memecoins by citing Pump.fun metrics showing more than 10,000 tokens created daily, 98.6% categorized as manipulative, and most collapsing within three months. While memecoins rely on information asymmetry favoring creators, prediction markets rely on transparency but face their own challenges: liquidity subsidized at more than $50,000 per day on some platforms, binary structures that limit expressive positioning, resolution oracles that introduce settlement risk, and aggressive information concentration near event deadlines that penalizes passive market makers.
The report outlines potential upgrades such as just-in-time liquidity, continuous combinatorial markets, rapid-settlement binaries, and perpetual contracts tied to probability curves. HTX argues that prediction markets could evolve into foundational infrastructure for “attention assets,” a proposed third asset class where value derives from visibility and engagement rather than cash flow or fixed supply. The firm cites assets like BAT and KAITO as early examples and imagines an on-chain attention index whose pricing would be difficult to manipulate due to the capital costs required to shift real prediction markets. The publication’s conclusion frames the sector as a fast-growing but structurally unfinished ecosystem attempting to balance scale, liquidity, and the reliability of its informational signals.
Activity across Kalshi, Polymarket, BNB Chain’s platforms, MetaMask, and Trust Wallet highlights a sector that is no longer confined to on-chain speculation. Prediction markets are being wired into major media properties, embedded directly into self-custodial wallets, deployed as yield-bearing applications, and packaged as data products for political, sports, and financial forecasting. Growth numbers are rising alongside scrutiny, and industry voices now frame prediction markets as potential infrastructure for measuring public attention—an emerging arena where information, incentives, and liquidity begin to intersect at global scale.
This article has been refined and enhanced by ChatGPT.
