Ripple - SEC Settlement Boosts XRP ETF Hopes

Legal Breakthrough Ignites Institutional Interest

Ripple’s long-standing legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission took a pivotal turn on March 25, 2025, as the company agreed to a $50 million settlement, marking a dramatic shift from the agency’s initial $2 billion penalty demand. The SEC dropped its appeal, while Ripple withdrew its cross-appeal, effectively ending a multi-year standoff that has shadowed XRP’s institutional prospects. 

Although the settlement still awaits final approval from SEC commissioners and the court to lift the prior injunction on XRP’s institutional sales, Ripple's leadership made it clear that the agreement doesn’t alter its core legal stance or business operations. Stuart Alderoty, Ripple’s Chief Legal Officer, emphasized continuity, and CTO David Schwartz reaffirmed the firm’s strategic direction, pointing out that the $75 million retained from the case strengthens their position moving forward.

The timing of the resolution has intensified speculation around a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF), especially given the SEC’s 240-day review window that began in February for multiple XRP ETF applications. ETF Store President Nate Geraci said approval appears inevitable, hinting that heavyweight issuers like BlackRock and Fidelity are expected to enter the XRP ETF race. 

His comment—“Seems obvious that spot XRP ETF approval is simply a matter of time”—mirrored the broader market sentiment, with XRP currently ranked as the third-largest non-stablecoin crypto asset by market cap, making it a natural candidate for institutional exposure. XRP’s appeal is further reinforced by Polymarket data, which gives an 86% probability for ETF approval by year-end and a 41% chance of it happening before July 31.

While the U.S. grapples with regulatory finality, Brazil has already taken the lead, greenlighting an XRP ETF through Hashdex. Stateside, firms like Bitwise, WisdomTree, Canary Capital, and Grayscale have either filed or signaled intent to pursue similar offerings. Despite this momentum, BlackRock's Head of ETFs, Jay Jacobs, recently indicated a more cautious approach toward altcoin ETFs. 

In comments relayed by Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas, Jacobs remarked that the firm is still focused on expanding Bitcoin and Ethereum offerings, describing the current phase as “just the tip of the iceberg.” His statement highlights the tension between emerging altcoin enthusiasm and the entrenched dominance of BTC and ETH among institutional players.

XRP’s market performance reflects the renewed optimism. As of late March, the token traded at $2.135, a 4.36% drop in 24 hours. JPMorgan analysts project that an XRP ETF could attract $6–$8 billion in capital within six to twelve months post-approval. Still, some voices remain skeptical about the longevity of altcoin ETF products. Financial analyst Nic Puckrin warned that their initial success might be fleeting, predicting lackluster long-term performance as investor preference gravitates back to Bitcoin ETFs.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has long asserted that an XRP ETF was inevitable. Following the settlement, his confidence appears vindicated. He stated the resolution "paves the way for further institutional adoption," reinforcing the notion that legal clarity is a crucial prerequisite for unlocking broader crypto market participation. 

Schwartz echoed similar views, adding that regulatory reform under the current SEC leadership could further improve conditions for crypto innovation and oversight. With the dust finally settling on Ripple’s legal troubles, attention now turns to whether the SEC will meet the market’s expectations—and timeline—for a historic XRP ETF approval.

This article has been refined and enhanced by ChatGPT.