Standard Chartered Keeps $2 Trillion Stablecoin Forecast as Velocity Hits 6x Monthly Turnover

USDC Drives Higher-Speed Payments While USDT Anchors Emerging Market Savings Demand

TL;DR

• Stablecoin velocity reached about 6x monthly turnover, doubling over two years
• Standard Chartered maintains $2 trillion market projection by end of 2028
• USDC leads high-frequency usage, while USDT remains tied to savings demand

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Standard Chartered said stablecoin velocity has doubled over the past two years, with tokens now turning over roughly six times per month as transaction activity accelerates across new payment use cases. The bank identified the shift as a key structural change in how digital dollars circulate, noting that faster turnover allows the same transaction demand to be supported with fewer tokens outstanding while still expanding overall activity tied to crypto price movements and broader crypto price index benchmarks.

Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, said the change alters assumptions used to model supply growth, stating, “If velocity remains constant, rising transactions will create demand for more stablecoins, but if it increases, that will not be the case.” The updated assessment reflects a divergence from earlier expectations that velocity would remain stable as the sector scaled alongside broader crypto price and coin market cap expansion.

Standard Chartered kept its core projection unchanged, maintaining that the stablecoin market could reach $2 trillion by the end of 2028 even as higher velocity reduces the need for proportional supply expansion. The bank said the increase in turnover is tied to new categories of usage rather than replacing existing demand, allowing both growth vectors to coexist within the same market structure tied to global crypto price index activity.

Kendrick said the additional transaction flows are currently additive, stating, “The good news is that these new use cases are, so far, additive to overall stablecoin transactions. Furthermore, the higher velocity of these use cases has not impacted the low-velocity [emerging markets] savings use case.” The distinction places different segments of the market on separate usage tracks without overlap in primary function.

USDC accounts for about 25% of the stablecoin market, according to the report, with its velocity beginning to diverge from USDT in mid-2024 as usage expanded beyond crypto-native settlement into higher-frequency payment flows linked to traditional financial infrastructure. The bank attributed that divergence to what it described as displacement of legacy banking rails, where stablecoins increasingly facilitate transactions previously handled through conventional systems.

Regulatory developments also played a role in accelerating usage patterns, with the report citing the GENIUS Act as a turning point that established a federal framework for stablecoins and contributed to further increases in USDC turnover following its implementation last summer. The policy shift coincided with broader institutional engagement across markets tied to crypto price and coin market cap metrics.

Another acceleration phase began in October 2025, when USDC velocity rose sharply on Solana and Base networks, driven by early activity tied to AI-agent payments conducted through x402, an open-source payment protocol developed by Coinbase. The bank said those transaction flows introduced a new category of automated payments interacting with blockchain infrastructure.

Those AI-linked volumes have since declined, though the report still treats the activity as evidence of an emerging use case rather than a temporary anomaly. The bank described the episode as part of a broader expansion in how stablecoins are used across both financial and non-financial transaction environments tied to evolving crypto price dynamics.

USDT has not followed the same trajectory, with its velocity remaining comparatively lower due to its dominant role in emerging-market savings. Kendrick said, “the two market leaders appear to have different strengths by use case — EM savings for USDT and TradFi replacement for USDC.”

This article has been refined and enhanced by ChatGPT.