USDMichael Saylor in Talks with MSCI Over Potential Index Exclusion
MSCI Scrutiny, Passive Outflow Risk, and Strategy’s Pushback
TL;DR
- MSCI is weighing whether to exclude Strategy and other digital-asset-heavy firms from major equity indexes, potentially triggering billions in passive outflows.
- Strategy is lobbying MSCI while stabilizing its balance sheet with a $1.4B cash reserve and recalibrated guidance as the crypto price index cools and coin market cap dynamics shift.
- Bitcoin accumulation continues but at a sharply reduced pace, signaling a turn toward risk management rather than aggressive expansion.
MSCI’s consultation on whether to remove companies classified as “digital asset treasuries” from its global equity benchmarks has placed Strategy at the center of one of the most consequential index governance debates of the year. MSCI announced its review on Oct. 10, 2025, opening a comment period through the end of December and scheduling final conclusions for Jan. 15, 2026. Strategy’s inclusion in MSCI USA and MSCI World gives the ruling outsized importance, because passive funds tracking these indexes represent a major structural demand source for MSTR shares. JPMorgan’s modeling—circulated widely and cited across market desks—projects that Strategy could face roughly $2.8 billion in forced selling if MSCI removes it, and as much as $8.8 billion if other index providers adopt similar standards.
MSCI World covers more than 1,300 large- and mid-cap companies across 23 developed markets, making Strategy’s heavy reliance on Bitcoin, rather than software fundamentals, a stark contrast to peers like Nvidia and Apple. Strategy was only added to MSCI World in May 2024 after its market value surged through the explosive early phase of its Bitcoin strategy, when it held around 214,000 BTC and was treated as a high-beta proxy for broad crypto price dynamics.
Saylor has recently confirmed that Strategy is directly “engaging in that process,” signaling that the firm is preparing a detailed defense of its model as MSCI evaluates whether digital-asset-heavy treasuries distort index composition.
His commentary at a Binance event in Dubai captured the dilemma: the company’s equity behaves like “amplified Bitcoin,” a structural truth that makes MSTR prone to wider swings whenever the crypto price index retraces or liquidity tightens. He pushed back on JPMorgan’s outflow estimates, saying he was “not sure” their numbers were correct, but stopped short of dismissing the risk outright.
The company has also worked to emphasize that it is an operating enterprise, not a passive Bitcoin trust, pointing to roughly $500 million in software revenue and a roster of capital-markets products including more than $7.7 billion in digital credit securities issued in 2025, along with a new Bitcoin-backed treasury instrument branded Stretch.
Online, some investors have accused JPMorgan of orchestrating a broader campaign against Strategy, pointing to the bank’s margin tightening on MSTR-backed loans in July as an inflection point in the stock’s downturn, though these claims remain speculative. Market data shows Strategy’s shares down about 60% from their July peak and 37% year-to-date, with the equity at times trading as much as $10 billion below the market value of its Bitcoin holdings—an inversion that challenges the long-standing belief that Strategy deserves a premium to coin market cap value due to its leverage and software arm.
A broader macro reset has intensified the pressure. Bitcoin retreated from approximately $126,000 in October to roughly $85,000 by early December, a drawdown mirrored across components of the crypto price index as ETF outflows approached $3.5 billion for November. Liquidity thinned, with market depth slipping from around $766 million to $568 million. Analysts described the move as cycle-level exhaustion, and warned that reclaiming the $95,000–$98,000 band is essential before bullish structure can reassert itself.
Traders simultaneously navigated volatility sparked by concerns around a potential yen carry unwind tied to Bank of Japan policy signals. Digital-asset treasury stocks as a category—Strategy and Japan-based Metaplanet being the highest-profile—first boomed in mid-year enthusiasm before swinging violently lower, with Metaplanet’s enterprise value even falling below the value of its Bitcoin holdings. Strategy’s collapse in its long-established NAV premium underscores how much the market has repriced balance-sheet leverage in a risk-off climate.
Strategy’s response to the downturn has been defined by its shift toward liquidity preservation. The company built a dollar reserve of approximately $1.4–$1.44 billion during late November and early December, enough to cover 12 months of preferred dividends and debt service with an internal goal to extend the cushion to 24 months. That reserve was assembled using equity proceeds and non-core asset sales, marking a pivot from raising capital solely to buy more Bitcoin toward protecting cash flow in case markets remain unstable.
Revised guidance reflects the new mood: earlier internal projections reportedly assumed year-end Bitcoin levels near $150,000 and potential 2025 income around $24 billion. Updated expectations anticipate Bitcoin finishing the year between $85,000 and $110,000, alongside a warning that Strategy could face losses of roughly $5.5 billion for 2025 if prices stay range-bound. Both Saylor and CEO Phong Le have acknowledged that Bitcoin sales could occur if mNAV drops below parity and access to financing dries up, with Saylor describing that outcome as “the absolutely right thing to do” from a mathematical standpoint while reiterating it remains a last-resort scenario.
Bitcoin accumulation continues, but the pace has slowed dramatically from the program’s peak. Data cited in recent analysis shows Strategy’s monthly Bitcoin purchases plunging from roughly 134,000 BTC at the height of its 2024 expansion to about 9,100 BTC in November 2025, with the most recent partial month showing only around 135 BTC added. Even so, opportunistic buying still occurs: the company acquired 8,178 BTC on Nov. 17 for about $835.5 million at an average price near $102,000 including fees, bringing holdings to 650,000 BTC valued around $60.85 billion.
Strategy’s largest accumulation cycles once fed a feedback loop where rising BTC strengthened MSTR’s valuation and opened new capital-raising windows. The current mode looks different: slower deployment, a protective cash buffer, active engagement with index overseers, and a willingness to challenge narratives that cast the company as little more than a Bitcoin tracker wrapped in equity form. These adjustments reflect a company navigating both the volatility inherent to crypto price movements and the structural questions now facing digital-asset-heavy corporate treasuries.
This article has been refined and enhanced by ChatGPT.
