Telegram Targets $2B Revenue as Crypto Volatility, Sanctions, and a Fragile 2025 IPO Market Complicate the Outlook

Rapid revenue expansion collides with token exposure and a risk-averse IPO environment reshaping how investors price crypto-adjacent companies

TL;DR

• Telegram generated $870 million in revenue in the first half of 2025 and is aiming for $2 billion for the full year, but crypto write-downs pushed the company into a net loss of more than $220 million.
• Heavy reliance on Toncoin-related revenue and asset sales amplified exposure to crypto price swings during a period of sharp market drawdowns.
• A weak and uneven 2025 IPO cycle, particularly for crypto-linked listings, raises the bar for Telegram’s public market ambitions.

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Telegram’s financial trajectory in 2025 reflects a company growing fast while absorbing the risks that come with deep exposure to digital assets. During the first half of the year, the messaging platform generated $870 million in revenue, representing growth of roughly 65% compared with the same period in 2024. Management has internally and externally framed this performance as putting Telegram on track for a $2 billion full-year revenue target, a milestone that would position it among the most profitable consumer technology platforms still operating as a private company.

That topline strength has been driven by multiple levers. Advertising continued to scale as Telegram expanded its reach across emerging and developed markets, while paid subscriptions posted strong gains, benefiting from new premium features and a growing base of power users. At the same time, a significant portion of revenue came from crypto-linked arrangements. Around $300 million of first-half revenue was tied to exclusivity deals and partnerships connected to Toncoin, the digital asset most closely associated with Telegram’s ecosystem. In addition, the company sold more than $450 million worth of Toncoin during the year, monetizing holdings that had accumulated through earlier agreements.

Those same crypto activities, however, became the main source of financial strain as market conditions deteriorated. Toncoin’s price fell by roughly 69% over the period, forcing Telegram to mark down the value of its remaining holdings. As a result, the company reported a net loss exceeding $220 million for the first half of 2025, despite generating close to $400 million in operating profit before write-downs. The contrast underscores how sensitive earnings can be for companies whose balance sheets are exposed to token valuations, particularly when the broader crypto price index is under pressure and shifts in crypto price sentiment ripple quickly across the coin market cap.

Beyond market volatility, geopolitical factors have complicated Telegram’s financial structure. Approximately $500 million in bonds remain frozen in Russia’s National Settlement Depository due to sanctions imposed after the invasion of Ukraine. Telegram has stated that it does not rely on Russian capital and that its more recent $1.7 billion convertible bond issuance excluded Russian investors, yet the frozen funds highlight how sanctions risk can linger even when companies attempt to distance themselves from affected jurisdictions. The situation adds uncertainty around debt servicing mechanics and investor perception ahead of any public listing.

All of this is unfolding against a difficult backdrop for initial public offerings in 2025, particularly for businesses with direct or indirect exposure to crypto markets. IPO data from across U.S. exchanges show a sharply uneven year. While a handful of large listings delivered respectable gains, the average IPO underperformed major equity benchmarks, reflecting cautious investor sentiment and tighter scrutiny of fundamentals. Crypto-related IPOs stood out for their volatility: several debuted with strong first-day rallies only to give back most of those gains as digital asset prices weakened later in the year.

Market participants have described 2025 as a reset year for IPOs, where valuation discipline returned after earlier cycles of speculative enthusiasm. Mid-sized offerings, especially those in the $500 million to $1 billion range, struggled to attract sustained demand, while larger, more established companies fared better. Analysts noted that investors increasingly penalized business models seen as overly dependent on token prices or trading activity, favoring predictable cash flows and clearer paths to long-term profitability.

Telegram’s IPO ambitions sit squarely within that context. The company has acknowledged that ongoing legal matters involving founder Pavel Durov in France must be resolved before any listing can proceed, but market conditions may prove just as decisive. With crypto-linked IPOs facing skepticism and public investors demanding resilience against swings in crypto price and sentiment, Telegram will likely need to demonstrate that its core messaging, advertising, and subscription businesses can stand on their own, regardless of fluctuations in token markets.

This article has been refined and enhanced by ChatGPT.