Circle Files for NYSE IPO as USDC Adoption Surges and Profit Model Faces Scrutiny

USDC Issuer Targets Public Markets Amid Regulatory Pressure and Revenue Challenges

Circle has filed for an initial public offering with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, marking a pivotal move for the company behind the USDC stablecoin. The March 29, 2025 disclosure follows a previously confidential S-1 draft and confirms plans to list shares on the New York Stock Exchange. 

While the number of shares and pricing range remain undisclosed, the timing of the filing aligns with a changing regulatory climate. Key legislation affecting stablecoins is under active review by the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate’s GENIUS framework, which could shape the IPO’s trajectory.

This public debut comes after a failed SPAC merger in 2022 that once pegged Circle’s valuation at $9 billion. The current estimate of $5 billion has raised questions about investor sentiment and long-term growth expectations. Market watchers view the IPO not only as a bid to gain public credibility but also as a response to intensifying regulatory oversight and the rapid expansion of global stablecoin adoption. The filing underscores Circle’s efforts to present itself as a transparent and compliant financial institution during a time when crypto firms are under heightened scrutiny.

USDC’s metrics point to substantial market traction. Since launching in 2018, the stablecoin has powered more than $25 trillion in on-chain activity, with $1 trillion in total issuance and redemptions. Over the course of 2024, USDC's supply ballooned by 78%, hitting $60 billion and securing a 26% share of the stablecoin market—second only to Tether’s 67%. 

The token now operates natively on 19 different blockchains, reflecting a strong commitment to interoperability and ecosystem integration. Its 36% market share growth in 2024 alone highlights its expanding footprint across DeFi, payments, and institutional settlement use cases. The broader stablecoin sector has also surged, climbing 11% year-to-date and 47% over the last 12 months, pointing to the increasingly central role of tokenized dollars in the digital economy.

Circle’s financials present a compelling growth narrative. Revenue jumped from $772 million in 2022 to nearly $1.7 billion in 2024, a year that saw the company swing from a $758 million loss to a $221.6 million net profit. Much of this income stems from interest earned on reserves backing USDC, mostly held in short-term U.S. Treasuries. 

However, the sustainability of this model has come under scrutiny. Analysts estimate that a 200 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve could slash Circle’s profits by $414 million—exposing how sensitive the firm’s earnings are to monetary policy shifts.

Compounding this concern is Circle’s reliance on Coinbase, its Centre Consortium partner, for USDC distribution. Coinbase reportedly took home $908 million in revenue from the stablecoin—more than four times Circle’s net profit. With Coinbase receiving roughly 90% of the $1 billion in estimated USDC-related revenue, critics have raised questions about whether Circle can remain profitable without such a heavy dependency. Industry voices like VanEck’s Wyatt Lonergan suggest that this imbalance could open the door to a future acquisition, possibly by Coinbase or even Ripple, if Circle’s stock price underwhelms post-IPO.

The company’s asset allocation strategy has also raised eyebrows. As of December 31, 2024, Circle held just 73 BTC ($6.78 million) and 1,746 ETH ($5.82 million), a conservative stance compared to Tether’s vast 92,000 BTC treasury, valued at $7.64 billion. Instead, Circle holds a significantly larger position in altcoins, including 6.25 million SEI, 2.3 million SUI, 867,000 OPT, 217,000 APT, and other smaller holdings worth $3.37 million. Combined, the altcoin portfolio stands at $18.7 million—well above Circle’s BTC and ETH holdings. This allocation has led some analysts to question whether Circle is overexposed to emerging ecosystems at the expense of more established digital assets.

Reactions across the industry reflect a mix of skepticism and strategic concern. HEX founder Richard Heart called out Circle’s modest BTC and ETH reserves, implying a lack of conviction in core crypto assets. Dragonfly partner Omar Kanji dismissed the $5 billion valuation as inflated, citing $250 million in annual compensation and $140 million in operating expenses as signs of structural inefficiency. He argued the IPO could be more about accessing liquidity than long-term positioning. 

Meanwhile, speculation continues to swirl around Circle’s future as competition intensifies and new players—like Trump-backed World Liberty Financial—enter the stablecoin race.

The stablecoin space is fast becoming a cornerstone of digital finance, not only for crypto-native applications but for global capital flows and U.S. monetary influence. With USDC embedded in everything from cross-border transactions to DeFi collateral, Circle’s public debut could shape the future trajectory of regulated digital dollars. Yet, questions around profitability, asset management, and strategic independence remain unresolved as the company prepares to step onto the public stage. 

This article has been refined and enhanced by ChatGPT.