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Standard Chartered Sets $10 Arbitrum Target as Institutional Chain Revenue Grows
Bank Links ARB Forecast to Robinhood Chain, Tokenization and Arbitrum's Expanding Fee Model
TL;DR
- Standard Chartered initiated coverage of Arbitrum with a $10 ARB price target for end-2030, representing roughly 70-fold upside from its price at the time.
- The bank expects external chains using Arbitrum technology to generate recurring revenue through the Arbitrum Expansion Program.
- Robinhood Chain is the first major institutional example supporting that thesis, with Arbitrum receiving 10% of its net protocol revenue.
- Slower tokenization, competing blockchains and ARB's limited direct value-accrual mechanism remain key risks.
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Standard Chartered initiated coverage of Arbitrum's ARB token on September 15, 2026, setting a $10 target for the end of 2030.
The target represented roughly 70-fold upside from ARB's price when the forecast was published.
Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered's global head of digital-assets research, said the Ethereum Layer 2 could benefit as financial institutions move assets and infrastructure onchain.
The bank projected:
- 2026: $0.50
- 2027: $1.50
- 2028: $3.50
- 2029: $6.50
- 2030: $10
Standard Chartered also projected Ether at $4,000 by end-2026 and $40,000 by end-2030, while its Bitcoin targets were $100,000 and $500,000, respectively.
Robinhood Chain Supports Arbitrum Revenue Thesis
A central part of Standard Chartered's forecast is Arbitrum's ability to generate revenue from external networks using its technology.
Under the Arbitrum Expansion Program, or AEP, Arbitrum receives 10% of net protocol revenue from participating chains.
Kendrick said:
“We see digital assets transitioning from a state where revenue is not yet relevant to one where revenue is critical – Arbitrum’s business model is heavily focused on revenue, and as such, the ARB token should benefit.”
Robinhood Chain became a major example after launching with Arbitrum technology on July 1, 2026.
Standard Chartered estimated Arbitrum could receive approximately $5 million in AEP fees during September at Robinhood Chain's prevailing revenue rate.
Robinhood Chain averaged about $2.8 million in daily fee revenue during the first two weeks of September. Arbitrum's total monthly revenue was running at more than five times its pre-launch level.
Kendrick said Robinhood Chain's performance increased the probability that other traditional financial companies would choose Arbitrum infrastructure.
The bank's valuation thesis therefore depends on both rising AEP revenue and investors potentially assigning ARB a higher valuation multiple.
Tokenization Could Expand Institutional Demand
Tokenization forms another major part of the forecast.
Standard Chartered projected that tokenized assets could increase from approximately $340 billion to $4 trillion by the end of 2028, including about $750 billion in tokenized equities.
A separate measure cited alongside the forecast placed tokenized real-world assets at nearly $39 billion. The two figures covered different market definitions.
The bank expects growth in tokenized securities and other financial assets to encourage banks, brokerages and financial institutions to operate their own blockchain networks.
If those companies build using Arbitrum's technology, AEP fees could connect activity on external institutional chains to Arbitrum's revenue.
The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation's work involving tokenized equities was also cited as part of that broader institutional trend.
Standard Chartered Identifies Key Risks
The bank's $10 ARB forecast depends on several assumptions that may not materialize.
Kendrick identified slower-than-expected tokenization and “more competition from alternate blockchains” as major risks.
Competing networks could attract institutional deployments even if tokenization grows as projected.
ARB's value-accrual structure is another concern. Higher Arbitrum ecosystem revenue does not automatically mean revenue flows directly to ARB holders.
The forecast therefore assumes stronger network economics will eventually translate into a higher market valuation for the token.
Regulatory uncertainty also remained a factor, including unresolved U.S. rules governing digital assets and tokenized securities and the stalled CLARITY Act.
What Standard Chartered's ARB Forecast Depends On
Standard Chartered's ARB call is a multiyear adoption and revenue thesis rather than a short-term price forecast.
For its $10 end-2030 target to materialize, the bank's model assumes tokenization expands substantially, more financial institutions deploy Arbitrum-based chains, AEP revenue grows and ARB receives a higher valuation as the ecosystem's economics strengthen.
Robinhood Chain provides an early example of that model, but its long-term success depends on whether additional institutional chains follow and whether growing Arbitrum revenue ultimately creates greater value for ARB itself.
