USDWorld Cup Pushes Prediction-Market Volume Above $50 Billion
Kalshi and Polymarket gain users as traditional sportsbooks face new competition
TL;DR
- Prediction markets recorded more than $50 billion in monthly notional volume during the first month of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
- Kalshi led disclosed activity, while Polymarket set records across its international and regulated U.S. platforms.
- Prediction-market apps captured most tracked betting-app installations and retained users longer than major sportsbook apps.
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Prediction markets surpassed $50 billion in monthly notional trading volume during the first month of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, as sports contracts drove record activity on Kalshi, Polymarket and the newly launched Rothera exchange and brought the platforms into more direct competition with traditional U.S. sportsbooks.
The information was released on July 14, 2026, during a tournament described as the largest sports-betting event ever held on American soil. Prediction markets allow participants to trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes, including sports, elections, economic releases and entertainment programs, rather than limiting users to conventional sportsbook wagers.
Kalshi’s June total represented the largest disclosed platform figure. Based on the reported monthly increase, its May activity was approximately $18.2 billion, meaning the exchange added roughly $12.8 billion in one month. Its cumulative tournament contracts represented approximately 72% of June activity and were between about 5.2 and eight times the amount initially projected for all regulated U.S. sportsbooks across the full competition.
Polymarket’s two platforms generated a combined $14.3 billion during June, although the international exchange and regulated American operation are separate products with different funding, identity-verification and settlement systems. The U.S. platform’s earlier monthly total was approximately $1.75 billion, implying growth close to 100%.
Kalshi, Polymarket and Rothera together accounted for about $47.3 billion of disclosed volume. The broader total above $50 billion therefore included activity on additional venues or reflected aggregation parameters extending beyond those three reported amounts.
Rothera is a joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group. Robinhood created the venue through its January acquisition of exchange operator MIAXdx and began routing World Cup contracts through it when operations started in June.
Rothera’s debut-month total was approximately twice the monthly volume Kalshi’s entire platform processed before the Super Bowl. Although one account characterized the amount as World Cup betting conducted through Robinhood-linked platforms, the more detailed information identified it as Rothera’s total first-month notional volume and did not establish that every trade was tournament-related.
Sportsbooks see record matches but weaker user retention
Eilers and Krejcik projected before the tournament that regulated U.S. sportsbooks would handle between $2.8 billion and $4.3 billion over 104 matches. Operators later said activity was exceeding their most optimistic internal expectations, although final state-level figures had not been released because regulatory reporting normally arrives several weeks later.
Global wagering through all World Cup betting channels was separately projected to exceed $50 billion. That estimate is distinct from the monthly prediction-market volume total because the two measures may cover different products, jurisdictions and trading methods.
The United States’ round-of-16 match against Belgium became the most-bet soccer game in the history of several major American sportsbooks. BetMGM said the match attracted more bets than every 2026 College Football Playoff game except the championship and more than the men’s college basketball final or any individual NBA, NHL or MLB championship-series game.
Christian Cipollini of BetMGM said, “This World Cup has been record-type handle stuff for us this whole time.”
DraftKings said its World Cup handle was running at approximately five times the level recorded during the 2022 tournament. Caesars reported that 81% of its handle on the U.S. knockout match backed the United States to advance.
Several conditions supported the increase in American betting. Legal mobile sports wagering was available in 39 states, compared with 19 four years earlier, while North American hosting placed games in favorable U.S. viewing windows. The national team’s progression to the round of 16 also maintained domestic interest beyond the tournament’s opening stage.
App data showed a different pattern for prediction markets and conventional betting companies. Sportsbook applications received an early tournament surge followed by falling engagement, while prediction-market applications continued gaining users later in June.
Kalshi and Polymarket together captured 78.5% of installations among six major betting applications tracked during June. Their combined share had been approximately 6% a year earlier, an increase of more than 13 times.
User-flow data also showed traditional sportsbook customers increasingly opening Kalshi during the competition, while the proportion of Kalshi users who later opened sportsbook applications declined. The observed movement suggested prediction markets were retaining users rather than functioning only as a channel that sent new customers toward established betting operators.
Kalshi and Polymarket advertised during matches, including halftime commercial placements and hydration breaks shown on U.S. broadcasts. Kalshi also appeared among the companies with the strongest consumer momentum in YouGov’s BrandIndex, which tracked more than 2,000 brands.
Kalshi appeared alongside Coca-Cola, Pepsi and Visa and ranked above Fox, the primary U.S. tournament broadcaster, in the consumer-momentum analysis.
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Kalshi reaches a broader customer base
Kalshi’s number of female users increased 106% during the tournament, compared with a 54% increase among male users. By late June, women represented 33.3% of Kalshi’s audience, compared with approximately 22% to 23% at DraftKings and FanDuel.
Kalshi attributed part of the increase among women to contracts tied to the reality television program “Love Island,” while World Cup markets also contributed to the platform’s broader user expansion. The available demographic information indicated that some new customers had not previously used traditional sportsbook products.
FIFA-related branding also expanded Kalshi’s visibility. ADI Predictstreet was identified as the FIFA World Cup’s official prediction-market partner, and Kalshi signed a co-branding agreement with the company on June 26.
The arrangement gave Kalshi branding rights, an in-venue presence and media distribution through Fox Sports. User growth had already begun before the agreement, meaning the increase could not be attributed solely to the partnership.
Institutional traders enter event contracts
DRW, the Chicago-based institutional trading firm, was building a dedicated prediction-market desk focused on Kalshi and Polymarket. The firm was applying cross-platform arbitrage methods developed in traditional derivatives markets.
World Cup winner prices were nearly identical across Kalshi, Polymarket and major sportsbooks as sophisticated traders acted on pricing differences between venues. International sportsbooks including Pinnacle continued to serve as benchmarks, while prediction-market liquidity had become sufficient for experienced traders to treat platform prices as usable signals.
Arbitrage activity can align prices across venues, narrow spreads and improve liquidity. The reported convergence showed professional firms were treating event contracts as tradable financial instruments rather than relying only on recreational betting demand.
Polymarket operates separate U.S. and international platforms
Polymarket’s ability to serve U.S. customers changed materially before the tournament. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission fined the company $1.4 million in 2022 for offering unregistered event-based derivatives, after which Polymarket agreed to stop serving American users.
Some U.S.-based participants continued accessing the international platform through virtual private networks. Polymarket later returned through a regulated American operation after acquiring a CFTC-licensed exchange for $112 million in late 2025.
The company received an Amended Order of Designation from the CFTC in November 2025, launched its regulated U.S. iOS application in December 2025 and removed the application’s waitlist in May 2026.
Polymarket’s regulated U.S. product requires full know-your-customer identity checks, receives funds through registered futures commission merchants and settles contracts in dollars. The international exchange remains geoblocked for U.S. internet addresses, uses crypto wallets, settles contracts in USDC and offers a wider selection of markets without the same identity requirements.
Allium estimated that wallets connected to U.S. users traded $571 million in international political markets during the preceding year. That exceeded the $422 million attributed to wallets associated with Hong Kong, making American-linked wallets the largest geographical group identified in the analysis.
Allium used wallet behavior rather than internet-protocol addresses to infer geographical connections. The U.S.-linked amount covered political contracts on the international platform and was not identified as World Cup volume or activity on the regulated American exchange.
Volume comparisons require different measurement standards
Prediction-market figures primarily represent notional trading volume rather than customer deposits, platform revenue or the net amount economically at risk. Contracts may be bought and sold repeatedly before settlement, allowing the same capital to contribute to volume multiple times.
Sportsbook handle measures wagers placed with operators, while prediction-market totals can include secondary trading and activity across sports, politics, entertainment and economic events. Kalshi’s monthly total included non-sports contracts, while its tournament amount was limited to World Cup markets.
Polymarket’s international total also included categories outside soccer. Direct comparisons between prediction-market volume and sportsbook handle therefore require care because the figures do not necessarily measure identical activity.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket were privately held and did not have publicly traded shares. Robinhood offered public-market exposure to the sector through its participation in Rothera, although the venue was jointly owned and was not independently listed.
Whether the World Cup gains persist remained unresolved. Available figures established record activity, broader demographics, growing institutional involvement and stronger user retention during the tournament, but longer-term retention, liquidity after the competition, regulatory treatment and sustainable revenue had not yet been determined.
FAQ
Are prediction-market volumes the same as sportsbook handle?
No. Prediction-market totals include repeated contract trading, while sportsbook handle measures wagers placed with operators.
Was all Rothera volume tied to the World Cup?
No. The disclosed figure covered total first-month notional activity, not exclusively World Cup contracts.
Can U.S. users legally access Polymarket?
They can use its regulated U.S. platform, while the international exchange remains geoblocked for American internet addresses.
Why were two Kalshi World Cup totals reported?
They reflected different tournament stages, with the smaller figure recorded before the group stage ended.
This article has been refined and enhanced by ChatGPT.
